| 摘要: |
| 本研究将非农就业的“不稳定性”和“社会保障”纳入统一的分析框架中，基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS 2018），利用有调节效应的Logit模型和两阶段IV-Probit模型探究二者对农户土地转出行为的影响。结果发现：（1）就业不稳定性能够抑制土地转出；（2）社会保障越完善能够促进土地转出；（3）社会保障在就业不稳定性对土地转出的影响中存在显著的调节效应，即社会保障能弱化就业不稳定的负面作用；（4）就业不稳定性和社会保障对土地转出的影响存在明显代际差异和风险偏好差异。因此应当尽快建立完善城乡一体化的社会保障体系和劳动力就业市场，破解资本对劳动力“掐尖”式剥削的现实问题，同时加强农民工职业技能培训，提升其自身实现稳定就业的能力，此外还需要重视土地流转合同的作用，降低进城务工的损失预期。 |
| 关键词: 土地流转 非农就业 不稳定性 社会保障 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F321.1?? |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目“三权分置下农地流转个体偏好研判实验及政策演进研究——基于豫鲁冀皖苏陕1493农户跟踪面板数据”(71874139)。 |
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| Why Does the Rural Land Circulation Develop in an Internal Way? ——Based on the Perspective of "Instability" and "Social Security" |
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xuguanqing, yujin
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| Abstract: |
| Research purposes: This study brings the "instability" and "social security" of non-agricultural employment into a unified analysis framework, and uses the 2018 China Family Tracking Survey Data (CFPS2018) to explore the impact of the two on farmers'' land transfer behavior. Research methods: Logit model with moderation effect and Two-stage IV-Probit Model. The results are as follows: (1) Employment instability can restrain land transfer; (2) The more perfect the social security is, the more land can be transferred out; (3) Social security has a significant moderating effect on the impact of employment instability on land transfer out, that is, social security can weaken the negative effect of employment instability; (4) There are obvious intergenerational differences and risk preference differences in the impact of employment instability and social security on land transfer out. Research conclusion: We should establish and improve the social security system and labor employment market of urban-rural integration as soon as possible, solve the practical problem of "pinching the tip" exploitation of labor force by capital, strengthen the vocational skills training of migrant workers, and improve their ability to achieve stable employment. In addition, we need to pay attention to the role of land transfer contracts and reduce the loss expectation of migrant workers. |
| Key words: land transfer out non-agriculture employment instability social security |