| 摘要: |
| 文章基于新发展理念,在阐述粮食产业高质量发展内涵的基础上构建综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法测度中国31个省份2011—2021年粮食产业高质量发展水平。同时采用非参数核密度估计、Moran’s I指数、空间Markov链、Dagum基尼系数等方法,系统分析中国粮食产业高质量发展的基本特点、时空演化特征及地区差异。研究结果表明:(1)时间演进特征方面。样本期内,中国粮食产业高质量发展指数显著提升,但整体水平较低；主销区粮食产业高质量发展水平最高,主产区及产销平衡区的粮食产业高质量发展有向多极化演变趋势。(2)空间演化特征方面。中国粮食产业高质量发展状态较为稳定,难以实现跨级跃迁,且存在显著的区域不平衡现象,高水平地区主要集中在粮食主销区及部分主产区。(3)区域差异方面。除主销区外,全国及其他地区粮食产业高质量发展的区域差异均呈缩小趋势,组间差距是粮食产业高质量发展不平衡不充分的主要原因。 |
| 关键词: 粮食产业 高质量发展 空间Markov链 空间效应 区域差异 |
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| 基金项目:2019年度国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代我国农村贫困性质变化及2020年后反贫困政策研究”(项目编号:19ZDA116) |
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| Measurement and Spatial and Temporal Evolutionary Characteristics of High-quality Development in the Grain Industry |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the new development concept, the article constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system on the basis of elaborating the connotation of high-quality development of grain industry, and adopts the entropy value method to measure the level of high-quality development of grain industry in 31 provinces of China from 2011 to 2021. Non-parametric kernel density estimation, Moran"s I index, spatial Markov chain and Dagum Gini coefficient are also used to systematically analyze the basic characteristics, spatial and temporal evolutionary features and regional differences of the high-quality development of China"s grain industry. The research results show that: (1) In terms of temporal evolutionary characteristics. During the sample period, the index of high-quality development of China"s grain industry has increased significantly, but the overall level is low; the level of high-quality development of grain industry in the main marketing area is the highest, and the high-quality development of grain industry in the main production area and the balanced production and marketing area has a tendency to evolve to multi-polarity. (2) In terms of spatial evolution characteristics. The high quality development of China"s grain industry is relatively stable, and it is difficult to achieve cross-level leap, and there is a significant regional imbalance, while the high level areas are mainly concentrated in the main marketing areas and some main production areas. (3) In terms of regional differences. Except for the main marketing areas, the regional differences in the high-quality development of the grain industry in the country and other regions are narrowing, and the gap between groups is the main reason for the unbalanced and insufficient high-quality development of the grain industry. |
| Key words: Grain Industry High Quality Development Spatial Markov Chain Spatial Effects Regional Differences |