| 摘要: |
| 明晰“市场化改革”与“统一大市场”的空间逻辑关系具有重要的现实意义。本文以玉米收储制度改革为对象,考察收储制度市场化改革对粮食统一大市场构建的影响。基于2010-2020年中国19个玉米主产区和主销区省(市)的面板数据,运用空间相关性模型考察了政府收储调控政策退出后玉米价格波动的空间变化特征和价格联动机制,并比较分析了市场化改革前后影响玉米市场价格波动的机制差异。研究得出:①市场化改革后,地理位置相邻省份玉米价格关联性不断提高,玉米市场空间整合程度有所提升；②改革后玉米价格呈现正向空间关联特征,集聚效应显著,以“H-H”和“L-L”型集聚为主；③市场化改革后玉米价格对地理位置相邻省份具有显著空间溢出效应,仔猪价格和猪饲料年产量等消费因素开始发挥作用。因此,为建设粮食统一大市场,应坚持推进粮食市场化改革,重视玉米生产的主导区域价格变化,增强价格调控能力,提高种粮积极性以保障供给,进一步实现玉米的稳价保供。 |
| 关键词: 收储制度改革 统一大市场 价格空间传导 莫兰指数 空间溢出效应 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学“粮食价格调控与市场反应机制研究:基于农户与粮食企业行为视角”(编号:71673127)；国家社会科学基金青年项目“粮食收储制度市场化改革研究”(编号: 18CJYO35)；全国统计科学研究重大项目“国家粮食安全统计监测指标及粮食供需平衡表编制研究”(项目编号:2021LD02)； |
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| Research on the Grain Purchase and Storage System Reform and the Construction of Grain Unified National Market –Evidences from Corn Market |
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WangYun
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南京财经大学
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| Abstract: |
| It is of great practical significance to clarify the spatial logical relationship between "market-oriented reform" and "unified big market". This paper takes the reform of corn purchase and storage system as the object to investigate the influence of market-oriented reform of the purchase and storage system on the construction of a unified large grain market. Based on the panel data of 19 major corn producing areas and provinces (municipalities) in China from 2010 to 2020, the spatial correlation model was used to investigate the spatial variation characteristics and price linkage mechanism of corn price fluctuation after the withdrawal of government purchase and storage regulation policy, and the differences of mechanism affecting corn market price fluctuation before and after market reform were compared and analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) After the marketization reform, the correlation of corn prices in geographically adjacent provinces is increasing, and the degree of spatial integration of corn market is improving. (2) After the reform, corn prices showed positive spatial correlation characteristics, and the agglomeration effect was significant, mainly "H-H" and "L-L" type agglomeration; (3) After the market-oriented reform, corn price has a significant spillover effect on geographically located provinces, and consumption factors such as piglet price and annual pig feed output begin to play a role. Therefore, in order to build a unified grain market, we should persist in promoting grain market reform, pay attention to the price changes in the leading regions of corn production, enhance the ability of price control, improve the enthusiasm of grain planting to ensure supply, and further realize the stable price and supply of corn. |
| Key words: grain purchase and storage system reform unified national market price space transmission Moran |