摘要: |
粮食储备是保障粮食安全的重要防线。中国持有多少粮食储备才能既保证粮食安全又节约储备成本?世界粮农组织提出的最低粮食安全库存消费比是国内最常用的标准之一,但其分析背景、计算维度和数据跨度与当前中国现实差距较大。本文借鉴FAO算法,基于1961-2018年三大主粮产需数据,利用产需平衡法和产量平滑推算整合得到小麦、稻谷和玉米安全库存消费比分别在20%~36%、15%~35%、15~25%之间,主粮总体的库存消费比在20%~35%,大约相当于全国3~4.2个月的消费量。分析结果表明,FAO粮食最低安全库存消费比有一定前提条件、适用范围,确定符合中国国情的储备标准非常必要和紧迫。进一步,提出适度有序去库存、剥离储备多重职能、培育多元储备主体的政策建议。 |
关键词: 粮农组织 粮食储备 最低安全储备率 适度去库存 |
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目) |
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Optimizing China’s Grain Storage : from the Perspective of Stock-to-Use Ratio |
普蓂喆
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Abstract: |
Grain storage is an important tool to defending for national food security. In order to ensure food security and save reserve costs, how much grain reserves should China hold? The cereal’s minimum safe stock-to-use ratio of FAO is one of the most commonly used criteria. This paper systematically reviews the relevant concepts and algorithms of this indicator, summarizes its prerequisites and the scope of application. Enlightened by FAO, an estimation plan of staple grains’ safe stock-to-use ratio in China is proposed. Based on production and demand data of three main staple grains from 1961 to 2018 in China, the optimal interval of stock-to-use ratio is estimated as 20%~36% for wheat, 15%~35% for rice, 15~25% for corn and 20%~35% for all three, which is equivalent to 3~4.2 months consumption. The results show that direct referring to FAO standard is a threat to China’s national food security. In the theoretical and practical perspectives, determining a China-specific food security standard is extremely necessary and urgent. In the end, this paper puts forward some policy advices to reduce excess storage moderately and orderly, simplify national reserve’s multiple objectives and cultivated diversified reserve organizations. |
Key words: FAO Grain Storage Minimum “Safe” Stock-to-use Ratio Moderate Destocking |