摘要: |
基于2017年1月—2019年5月的月度数据,采用仔猪、生猪、玉米、豆粕和白条猪肉作为生猪产业链中不同环节的商品代表,利用价格法分省份测算非洲猪瘟发生前后五种商品的市场分割指数,以此研究非洲猪瘟对生猪产业链的影响。研究发现,非洲猪瘟对生猪产业链造成了严重负向冲击,但是冲击程度在生猪产业链不同的环节、不同的省份之间存在明显的异质性:非洲猪瘟的发生加剧了仔猪、生猪和白条猪肉市场的分割程度,对玉米和豆粕市场的分割程度影响较小。仔猪市场中,天津市、江西省、辽宁省和河北省市场分割程度受疫情影响最严重;生猪市场中浙江省、辽宁省、吉林省和河南省的市场分割程度受疫情影响最严重;白条猪肉市场中浙江省、辽宁省、黑龙江省和吉林省市场分割程度受疫情影响最严重。 |
关键词: 非洲猪瘟,生猪产业链,市场分割,异质性 |
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目《市场风险冲击下禽业纵向协作的隐性契约稳定性研究》(71573130) |
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Study on the Economic Impact of African Swine Fever on China"s Pig Industry Chain: From the Perspective of Market Segmentation |
ZHOU Li, LIU Ting-ting
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College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University
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Abstract: |
Based on the monthly data from January 2017 to May 2019, using piglets, pigs, corn, soybean and white striped pork as the commodity representatives of different links in the pig industry chain., calculating the market segmentation index of five commodities before and after the occurrence of African swine fever by using price method provinces, to study the impact of African swine fever on the pig industry chain. The study found that African swine fever had a serious negative impact on the pig industry chain, but the impact degree had obvious heterogeneity among different links of the pig industry chain and different provinces: the occurrence of African swine fever aggravated the segmentation degree of piglet, pig and white strip pork market, and had little impact on the segmentation degree of corn and soybean meal market. Among the piglet markets, the market segmentation in Tianjin, Jiangxi, Liaoning and Hebei provinces were most severely affected by the epidemic. Among the pig market, the market segmentation in Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jilin and Henan provinces were most seriously affected by the epidemic. Among the white striped pork market, the market segmentation in Zhejiang, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces were most seriously affected by the epidemic. |
Key words: African swine fever,Pig Industry Chain,Market segmentation,Heterogeneity |