摘要: |
生猪养殖规模化生产效率高、疫病防控能力强,是稳定生猪生产、保证猪肉供给的重要手段。文章在分析中国生猪养殖业规模化现状及趋势的基础上,着重分析了生猪生产规模化的动力、路径及影响,得出以下结论:(1)机会成本上升、环保政策趋紧、疫病防控压力导致散养户加速退出,生猪规模化快速发展,中国生猪生产结构从金字塔型向纺锤型转变。(2)规模化推动生猪养殖业转型升级,使生猪生产从劳动密集型行业向资本、技术密集型转变,从穷人养猪向富人养猪转变。(3)“公司+家庭农场户”模式符合可持续发展原则、规模化扩张的轻资产商业需求及以政府政策引导方向,长期来看该模式将成为中国生猪养殖业规模化的主要路径。(4)生猪规模化养殖需要大规模固定资产投资、沉没成本高,规模养殖场融资能力强、达产周期长,因此规模化将拉长生猪价格波动周期;当前大规模养殖集团的高回报率源于工业化、规模化生产模式对农户小规模、散养模式的替代,随着规模化的普及,市场竞争将迫使生猪养殖者提高生产效率、降低生产成本。 |
关键词: 生猪养殖业 规模化 生产效率 机会成本 疫病防控 |
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金“信息获取、从众行为与生猪价格形成机制研究”(编号:71773001)、国家社科基金重点项目“非洲猪瘟疫情冲击下生猪产业链优化与支持政策研究”(编号:19AGL020) |
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Research on the Motivation, Path and Impact of China"s Pig Breeding |
Guo Li-jing, 林云志
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School of Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics
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Abstract: |
The large-scale production efficiency of the pig breeding industry is high, and the disease prevention and control ability is strong. It is an important means to stabilize pig production and ensure pork supply. Based on the analysis of the current status and trends of China"s hog breeding industry, this article focuses on analyzing the motive, path and impact of hog production scale, and the following conclusions: (1) It has led to the rapid withdrawal of free-range farmers, the rapid development of large-scale pig production, and the transition of China"s pig production structure from pyramid-type to spindle-type for the rising opportunity costs, tightening environmental protection policies, and pressure on epidemic prevention and control. (2) The scale promotes the transformation and upgrading of the pig breeding industry. Pig production has shifted from labor-intensive industries to capital and technology-intensive industries and from poor pigs to rich pigs. (3) The "company + family farm households" model is in line with the principles of sustainable agricultural development combining plantation and breeding, the rapid expansion of large-scale production of light-asset commercial demand, and the guidance of new farmers" policies based on farmers. Therefore, in the long run, the "company + family farm" model will become the main path for the scale of China"s pig farming industry. (4) Large-scale farming has a large investment in fixed assets, high sunk costs, strong farm financing capabilities, and a long production cycle, so large-scale farming will prolong the cycle of hog price fluctuations; The current high rate of return of large-scale farming groups comes from the replacement of small-scale and free-range farming models by industrialized and large-scale production models. With the popularization of scale, market competition will increase the production efficiency and reduce production costs of large-scale farms. |
Key words: pig breeding, scale, production efficiency, opportunity cost, disease control |